2014 Oscar Predictions by Camilo Arenivar
Many years I have done my Oscar predictions, sometimes I have not. This is a more rare year in which I think I have seen more of the nominated films than I have not. And that is in a theater (with maybe one exception), the way you should! In this post I will post who I think WILL win, and who I personally think SHOULD win. If I did not see a movie or performance, I will put an asterisk next to it, as this may impact my opinion. I only am making predicitions on 10 of the top categories, so no Shorts or Documentaries and no, I am not a Foreign Film kind of guy. So, here goes!
BEST PICTURE
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Nebraska”*
“Philomena”*
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”*
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Yes, it is going to be one of those rare years when there is a split. This last happened in the 73rd Academy Awards when Stephen Soderbergh won for "Traffic" but "Gladiator" won for best film. It DOES Happen. We will see if I am right or not.
ACTOR
Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”*
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD WIN: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club” or Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave” - both amazing performances
ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Judi Dench, “Philomena”*
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”*
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Now I know I did not see Judi Dench but it's Judi Dench. Same as Meryl Streep. Both great actresses who shine in everything they do. I still pick Cate even though I did not see these other two.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
WILL WIN: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD WIN: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
One of the few categories in which I saw every movie. Hands down Jared Leto, but Michael Fassbender and Barkhad Abdi also were really good.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”*
June Squibb, “Nebraska”*
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” or Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
I really liked "Blue Jasmine". Great acting and story, but nothing compares to Lupita.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke*
“Captain Phillips,” Billy Ray
“Philomena,” Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope*
“12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
“The Wolf of Wall Street,” Terence Winter
WILL WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
SHOULD WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine,” Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club,” Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
“Her,” Spike Jonze; “Nebraska,” Bob Nelson
WILL WIN: “Her,” Spike Jonze
SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
I am not one of the people who get "Her". I think the hipsters and the melancholic arty people have overrated this. I MUCH prefer American Hustle. Better story, better writing. But I think the Academy will still give it to "Her".
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” - Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from “Frozen” - Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from “Her” - Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” - Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson
WILL WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen” -Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
SHOULD WIN: “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” - Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (U2); Lyric by Paul Hewson
I am biased. I want U2!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
WILL WIN: "Frozen"
SHOULD WIN: No opinion, I don't see animated movies.
BEST PICTURE
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Nebraska”*
“Philomena”*
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”*
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Yes, it is going to be one of those rare years when there is a split. This last happened in the 73rd Academy Awards when Stephen Soderbergh won for "Traffic" but "Gladiator" won for best film. It DOES Happen. We will see if I am right or not.
ACTOR
Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”*
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD WIN: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club” or Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave” - both amazing performances
ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Judi Dench, “Philomena”*
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”*
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Now I know I did not see Judi Dench but it's Judi Dench. Same as Meryl Streep. Both great actresses who shine in everything they do. I still pick Cate even though I did not see these other two.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
WILL WIN: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD WIN: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
One of the few categories in which I saw every movie. Hands down Jared Leto, but Michael Fassbender and Barkhad Abdi also were really good.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”*
June Squibb, “Nebraska”*
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” or Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
I really liked "Blue Jasmine". Great acting and story, but nothing compares to Lupita.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke*
“Captain Phillips,” Billy Ray
“Philomena,” Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope*
“12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
“The Wolf of Wall Street,” Terence Winter
WILL WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
SHOULD WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine,” Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club,” Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
“Her,” Spike Jonze; “Nebraska,” Bob Nelson
WILL WIN: “Her,” Spike Jonze
SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
I am not one of the people who get "Her". I think the hipsters and the melancholic arty people have overrated this. I MUCH prefer American Hustle. Better story, better writing. But I think the Academy will still give it to "Her".
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” - Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from “Frozen” - Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from “Her” - Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” - Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson
WILL WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen” -Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
SHOULD WIN: “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” - Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (U2); Lyric by Paul Hewson
I am biased. I want U2!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
WILL WIN: "Frozen"
SHOULD WIN: No opinion, I don't see animated movies.
posted by Camilo Arenivar's CurrentlyPlaying. Reviews and More at 3:38 PM
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