Camilo Arenivar's 2015 Oscar Predictions

2015 Oscar Predictions by Camilo Arenivar

This is the first year in which I have seen ALL of the films nominated for Best Picture and 4/5 of most of the other categories as well.

What an interesting awards season it has been! Hollywood fell in love with "Boyhood" because it was filmed over 12 years...but in my opinion, that is all that is really noteworthy about it. "Birdman" was the other highly acclaimed film. I found "The Theory of Everything" and "The Imitation Game" to both be more emotionally captivating films but then came "American Sniper" that generated historical box office and was also intense and about a controversial American hero. Despite all this, this year's race really boils down to 2 or 3 movies in the end.

In this post I will post who I think WILL win, and who I personally think SHOULD win. If I did not see a movie or performance, I will put an asterisk next to it, as this may impact my opinion. I only am making predictions on 9 of the top categories, so no Shorts, Documentaries, Animated or Foreign Film speculations. So, here goes!

BEST PICTURE
"American Sniper"
"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
"Boyhood"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"The Imitation Game"
"Selma"
"The Theory of Everything"
"Whiplash"

For this one you are either Team Birdman or Team Boyhood! The American public of course is Team Chris Kyle ("American Sniper") but unlike the wack music awards, their input does not sway these awards as much.

Despite "Boyhood" having the early lock, Guild indicators (Producers, Directors, and Actors) all gave the big award to this film...but then Globes, BAFTA and Critics Choice went to "Boyhood"...it's a close one!



WILL WIN: “Birdman” 

SHOULD WIN: “Birdman”

COULD WIN: "Boyhood"

If this was the old days when we only had 5 nominees, I would have said "Birdman" plus "Selma", "The Imitation Game", "American Sniper" and "The Theory of Everything" would have been the ones.

DIRECTOR

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”*
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

Another tough one to call! Could this be one of those years the DGA is not a valid indicator? I am going to bet NO.

WILL WIN: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

SHOULD WIN: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

COULD WIN: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” (please NO)

If Iñárritu does indeed win it will be interesting that two years in a row Mexican film directors will have taken home this honor. Is that Oscar history?

ACTOR

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”*
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything"

WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything"

SHOULD WIN: All of them (although I did not see "Foxcatcher")! A great year for Male actor performances!

COULD WIN: Michael Keaton, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”*
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Julianne Moore is a great actress, and one of my favorite ones. She has a body of great work she could have easily won for in the past frpm "Far From Heaven" to "The Hours" etc. She had one of the most memorable performances in my all time favorite movie, "Magnolia". Her perfomance in "Still Alice" is excellent, although I am a little surprised that this is the one she will win the Oscar for. Let's just say it is time. And "Still Alice" was not a bad movie, and she was great in it as she is in anything, so that is why I am a little surprised that THIS is the movie she will win in. Regardless, I am happy for her.


WILL WIN: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” or Rosamund Pike, I mean the power of her performance brought her out of obscurity and into an Best Actress nomination. She MADE the movie. AND Felicity Jones was great in "The Theory of Everything" as well.

COULD WIN: Um, no one else really...

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, "The Judge"*
Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
Edward Norton, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"*
J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

SHOULD WIN: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

COULD WIN: Edward Norton, "Birdman"

This is probably the category I've seen least of the performances for but in addition to J.K. Simmons great performance I also thought Edward Norton was terrific in "Birdman".

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Laura Dern, "Wild"
Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
Emma Stone, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
Meryl Streep, "Into The Woods"

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

SHOULD WIN: Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"

COULD WIN: Emma Stone, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"

Not that impressed with the acting in "Boyhood" or anything else really.
It was just a nice movie. I thought Keira really supported the role of the lead actor in this film, Benedict Cumberbatch very well and I really wish she would win this one.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jason Hall, “American Sniper”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”
Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”
Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”

This is a tough one!!! Indicators are all over the place but I am going to pick one...

WILL WIN: Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”

SHOULD WIN: Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”

COULD WIN: Any of them except P.T. Anderson!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gcyB72nFmc

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr. and Armando Bo, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson (screenplay), Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (story), “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler”

Another close one but I am pretty confident in my pick...

WILL WIN: Wes Anderson (screenplay), Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (story), “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

SHOULD WIN: Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler” - this movie got lost in the dust but I think it should have gotten Best Picture nod as well as actor for Jake Gyllenhaal and Supporting Actress for Rene Russo.

COULD WIN: "Birdman" or "Boyhood"

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Everything Is Awesome” in “The Lego Movie”
“Glory” in “Selma”
“Grateful” in “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” in “Glen Campbell … I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars” in “Begin Again”

WILL WIN: “Glory” in “Selma”

SHOULD WIN: “Glory” in “Selma”

"Selma" should have received at least another 3-4 award nominations but at least it will WIN this one...